Max: $1 = CA$1
Sign of US decline? Or sign of how Canada's socialist whackiness is allowing them to catch up to our non-socialist greatness.
posted by Max Dobberstein at 9/26/2007 01:23:00 PM
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
11 Comments:
A sign that markets fluctuate?
This isn't the first time the dollar has decreased in value - even drastically.
Remember when everyone was talking about the Yen and how it was going to rule the planet? What was that - the middle 80s? Where is the Yen now?
The dollar will bounce back - it always does. Once investors and bankers have taken enough money from us this way, they will find a new way to take money from us and the dollar will bounce back.
Do you ever research before you comment? Or do you just assume that everything you pull out of your ass must be correct?
Um, Pot, this is Kettle ...
Tell you what, disprove my point with some of YOUR blindingly accurate research.
The mating call of the true believer - "Prove me wrong." If I can't prove aliens have visited the Earth, then they have visited. If I can't disprove the existance of a tea cup orbitting the Sun, it must be out there.
Still:
http://www.ottawabusinessjournal.com/289818795721488.php
How does that disprove me?
I thought maybe it might compell you to do a little research.
Let me sum up what I have read.
Opinion amongst economists is divided. ABout a third think everything is fine, about a third think we are in for a rough ride that may or not smooth out in the future, and about a third think we are at the very least headed for a recession.
What most of them agree on is that the US economy is on tenuous footing and is at the mercy of foreign interests who may not always look the 800lb gorilla that is the US with mercy.
But why research when you can fantasize, right?
The money market - which is what we are talking about here - is cyclic.
For instance:
US$ vs Yen last 5 years:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDJPY=X&t=5y
It's easy to see the values fluctuate in even that short of a time frame.
Have a look at this chart:
http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/etc/USDpages.pdf
The Yen in the 70s was extremely low. The economy in Japan changed, and we see the Yen become more valuable through-out the 80s and 90s. (Yup, never do research - I just have a good memory!) This caps in 95 with a very strong Yen. It has bounced around a bit since and remains strong - but not as strong as 1995.
The Canadian dollar met near parity with the US$ in 1973. We see drops in the value of the CA$ in 86, 99 and 02. Since 02, there has been a steady decline in the value of the US$ vs. the CA$.
You are pointing to a single indicator and saying "Look! Everything sucks!" My point is that currency markets fluctuate all over the place - they drop for dumb reasons and they increase for dumb reasons.
We have a currency problem now because of the so-called "credit crunch" plus some other economic woes. Next year when a democrat takes office - the currency market will likely favor the dollar. Why? It has nothing to do with anything other than the confidence of currency traders.
I bet the Canadians didn't flinch when the dollar was worth CAD $1.5 - they just invited us to spend our tourism dollars in lovely Victoria BC!
You have shown that the money market has in some circumstances cycled. Do a little research and you will find currencies that flopped.
Every fund manager will tell you, past performance does not indicate future success.
So, because other currencies have flopped and we have some economic troubles and 1US$ = 1CA$ - the US currency is about to flop??
Not necesarily. However, as it stands our economy is a dangerous place and it ain't gonna be saved by wishful thinking and pixie dust.
This only annoys me because I was hoping to move to Toronto on the cheep.
Post a Comment
<< Home